Housing Less Affordable, But Not Dramatically So
Housing data has come in weaker than expected across a number of indicators over the past several months, and as we discussed last night in The Closer, the Home Construction ETF (ITB) is near its worst levels versus the broad market in 6 1/2 years. With home prices relatively high, mortgage rates rising, a lack of cheap […]

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The Party Is Over
“What a difference a day makes”! Well, we didn’t get the sun and the flowers like in Dinah Washington’s song but more like storm and showers. For the ones who don’t remember Dinah, Amy Winehouse made a more recent version of the song. Last week I warned investors again, in the strongest tone possible, of […]

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October 2018 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Insignificantly Declined
The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey insignificantly declined but remains in expansion. Key elements declined. Analyst Opinion of the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Consider this a weaker report than last month as key elements declined – and backlog now is in contraction. This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is […]

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US Stocks Slump As Italian Risk Spikes To 5-Year Highs
As we discussed yesterday, the recent bout of optimism over Italian assets was not meant to last, following what was first a warning of an imminent sovereign rating downgrade by an Italian official, followed by a report that the EU Commission would reject the Italian 2019 budget. And while there have been no material new developments, […]

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Bulls Stand Their Ground
There may not be a whole lot of them, but among the bulls that remain, they held firm in the latest week as equity markets attempted to regain their footing. According to the weekly sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment increased this week from 30.6% up to 33.9%. While slightly more than a third of investors […]

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Housing Less Affordable, But Not Dramatically So

Housing Less Affordable, But Not Dramatically So

Housing data has come in weaker than expected across a number of indicators over the past several months, and as we discussed last night in The Closer, the Home Construction ETF (ITB) is near its worst levels versus the broad market in 6 1/2 years. With home prices relatively high, mortgage rates rising, a lack of cheap […]
The Party Is Over

The Party Is Over

“What a difference a day makes”! Well, we didn’t get the sun and the flowers like in Dinah Washington’s song but more like storm and showers. For the ones who don’t remember Dinah, Amy Winehouse made a more recent version of the song. Last week I warned investors again, in the strongest tone possible, of […]
October 2018 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Insignificantly Declined

October 2018 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Insignificantly Declined

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey insignificantly declined but remains in expansion. Key elements declined. Analyst Opinion of the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Consider this a weaker report than last month as key elements declined – and backlog now is in contraction. This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is […]
US Stocks Slump As Italian Risk Spikes To 5-Year Highs

US Stocks Slump As Italian Risk Spikes To 5-Year Highs

As we discussed yesterday, the recent bout of optimism over Italian assets was not meant to last, following what was first a warning of an imminent sovereign rating downgrade by an Italian official, followed by a report that the EU Commission would reject the Italian 2019 budget. And while there have been no material new developments, […]
Bulls Stand Their Ground

Bulls Stand Their Ground

There may not be a whole lot of them, but among the bulls that remain, they held firm in the latest week as equity markets attempted to regain their footing. According to the weekly sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment increased this week from 30.6% up to 33.9%. While slightly more than a third of investors […]
Take A Peek At What The Top 1 Percent Have In Savings

Take A Peek At What The Top 1 Percent Have In Savings

You’ve likely seen the reports: A whopping 44 percent of Americans wouldn’t be able to afford a $400 emergency expense without borrowing it or selling something. That’s according to the Federal Reserve’s findings in 2017. And earlier this year, financial services firm Bankrate reported that only 39 percent of Americans would be able to pay […]
Netflix Betting Big On India

Netflix Betting Big On India

After a rather weak second quarter earlier this summer, Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) restored faith amongst investors by delivering stellar third-quarter results. The stock market is pleased with the performance as its stock soared 17% in the after-hours trading session. Netflix’s Financials Netflix’s Q3 revenues grew 34% over the year to $4 billion, marginally ahead of the […]
October 2018 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Marginally Worsens

October 2018 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Marginally Worsens

The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 210 K to 217 K (consensus 215,000), and the Department of Labor reported 210,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 209,750 (reported last […]
Reprieve In Emerging Markets May Be Nearly Over

Reprieve In Emerging Markets May Be Nearly Over

I identified three forces that have undermined emerging markets as an asset class: The US policy mix, which results in upward pressure on the dollar and interest rates, competes with other capital importers. This coupled with the second force, the rise in oil prices (which to some extent is also the result of US policies, […]
Travelers (TRV) Q3 Earnings And Revenues Top Estimates

Travelers (TRV) Q3 Earnings And Revenues Top Estimates

Travelers (TRV – Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.54 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.22 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.91 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 14.41%. A quarter ago, it was expected that […]