Written by Gary
Markets closed mixed with the SP500 making a new closing high and the DOW in the red. The NASDAQ closed higher almost matching its February, 2000 closing high of 4696.69.
By 4 pm the averages had stopped the trending down and made a last minute push to close higher than it would have as the BTFDers jumped in. Why the markets have not gone up is confusing investors heading into the weekend.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the short-term market direction meter is very bullish rising from neutral this morning. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 24.91. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 63 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%).
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 52.8 % bullish with the status at BearCorrection. I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the direction continue to descend.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 17.23. But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.