Honne And Tatemae


Traditional Markets

Stocks continue to decline as headlines of the trade war dominate the news.

Over the last few weeks, the dispute has been escalating and it could come to a head by Friday when Trump’s new tariffs on China are set to kick in.

Looking at the VIX volatility index we can see that the market activity has been escalating over the last two weeks, although it’s still not even close to the spike we saw on February 2nd. 

 

On top of that, we’re getting some news out of the German Bundestag that is playing out negatively on the DAX.

Mexico’s New President

The vote was a landslide. Even though the official results aren’t due until tonight, both of the contenders have already conceded to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).

Results of the congressional election are a bit more difficult to forecast and if AMLO’s party does manage to attain a majority there, it will certainly be a lot easier for him to implement his economic agenda.

In the meantime, the Peso is looking a bit weak this morning. This graph shows the Peso getting progressively stronger since mid-June and the spike down this morning.

(Remember: The graph is inverted so a move down means the Peso is getting stronger.)

Also, the Mexican central bank is currently offering a high interest rate. Something that can certainly give an advantage to anyone shorting the USDMXN pair.

Crypto Volumes Up

Bitcoin and the crypto market swung higher over the weekend with volumes notably stronger than we’ve grown accustomed to, especially across the exchanges. 

The rise in pricing and volumes came on Friday evening…

An optimistic look at bitcoin’s chart shows several positive progressions as well. The most obvious is the break above the downward channel that we’ve been tracking. 

The price has managed to sustain above $6,250 all weekend but is yet to show if the breakout is real or false.

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