E Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 19


Anxious efforts to ignite rallies go well beyond seasonality; or the Fed chatter (actually secondary; because this is about debt and credit markets in a macro way; less so related to Fed-Fund rate hikes). And of course ‘trade’ and ‘tariffs’ (or even a ceasefire during negotiations) are what matters.  

This period of ‘indecision’ fundamentally, and technically as well, relates to a great degree primarily to the positioning or posture of the S&P, which we’ve suggested would horse around and probably not break the ‘indecision’, even as everyone recognizes the importance of trade, but it’s increasingly clear it matters whether a ‘deal’ to work towards a deal happens at G20; or whether China does not comply with Intellectual Property concerns. That’s more key in the long-run than simply the ‘Trade Deficit’ between the two countries.

Even the domestic political opposition concerns matter; as Democrats now cannot further deconstruction of America (by somehow accepting any deal that comes along); hence there’s pressure on President Trump to at least remain pretty firm when it comes to cutting a deal with China.  

The technical picture is borderline struggling to hold areas below which.. as the saying now goes.. below which dragons await :). 

 

 

Bottom line: Technical holding action is an indecision pattern daily; but not a clear sign of the seasonal year-end rally most investors would like (or lots more accurately ‘need’) to see happen over the next few weeks.  

The global trade picture is being counted on to rescue matters, even more so than one-more-and-done pressures being put on the Federal Reserve as is being focused on by so many. I say ‘global’ because Brexit matters too.    

Even if we get a year-end (and/or combined relief rally on ‘trade’) advance, it is unlikely to ignite a full leg-up beyond temporary action. Limited guidance, as well as restrained spending and Capital Expenditures, support continued slowing of the ‘economic funk’ (if not actual recession) from early this year.  

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