Home Sales Trends Vs Recessions

Home Sales Trends Vs Recessions

Existing home sales are slowing. Can a recession be far behind? Please consider U.S. Housing-Market Trends Suggest Recession Around Election Time, 2020. Ten years ago, in September 2008, plunging home prices pushed Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy, fueling a financial crisis that sent the United States, and much of the world, into a deep recession. One metric […]
Tech ETFs In Focus On Oracle’s Mixed Bag Q1 Results

Tech ETFs In Focus On Oracle’s Mixed Bag Q1 Results

After the closing bell yesterday, software giant Oracle (ORCL – Free Report) reported fiscal first-quarter 2019 results. While the company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings, it lagged on revenues and disappointed investors with a bleak outlook. Oracle Q1 Earnings in Focus Earnings per share came in at 71 cents, three cents ahead of the Zacks […]
The Last Time Bonds Were This Attractive Vs Stocks, The Recession Started

The Last Time Bonds Were This Attractive Vs Stocks, The Recession Started

The long-end of the Treasury yield curve is blowing out today: whether due to technicals, now that the 3% level has been breached, or amid expectations that (even more) Chinese stimulus in the coming weeks  -arguably to offset the $200BN in tariffs slapped by Trump on China overnight – will prompt another modest reflationary wave around the […]
Cash Is Less Trashy

Cash Is Less Trashy

As interest rates have risen over the last few months, we have seen a number of charts similar to the one below comparing the yield on the 3-Month US Treasury (UST) to the dividend yield on the S&P 500.  Up until just a couple of months ago, this entire bull market has occurred during a period […]
(Still) Waiting For Recovery In US Soybean Prices (Levels, Relative)

(Still) Waiting For Recovery In US Soybean Prices (Levels, Relative)

November soybeans futures keep on going down. And the US-Brazil spread has proven durable. Source: barchart.com. For those who argued Chinese tariffs would be immaterial to prices because of arbitrage/relabeling (see this post, and associated comments, this graph is, I think, dispositive, as the gap in US and Brazilian soybean prices has proven very durable (more so […]
NIO Is Off To A Hot Start Here Is Why You Should Avoid

NIO Is Off To A Hot Start Here Is Why You Should Avoid

NIO is a new public offering for investors and so far, the stock has had a wild ride. Just like with Sonos, which I wrote about recently, NIO looks great from afar, but once you start digging into this company, you see red flags everywhere. Still, many investors will ignore these red flags because they see […]
Entering A Tough Time Of Year For Crude Oil

Entering A Tough Time Of Year For Crude Oil

On Monday we syndicated an outlook for crude oil that was at least a little bit alarming. Specifically, Oil Price Information Service’s co-founder Tom Kloza cautioned that seasonal influences could crimp demand for oil. This is around the time of year when refineries are maintained; some of them are also still switching over to heating […]
Chinese Money Math

Chinese Money Math

What has changed in China? Many if not most in the West haven’t yet caught on because they can’t conceive of where all this might be heading. One literal change was the appointment of Yi Gang as head of the People’s Bank of China. Not only did he replace longtime chief Zhou Xiaochuan, but Yi’s […]
Gold: A New Trade War Weapon?

Gold: A New Trade War Weapon?

Ahead of the Fed’s key meeting next week, gold continues to meander sideways to lower. Double-click to enlarge this key short-term gold chart.  I’ve referred to the US-China tariffs as a “trade skirmish”.  Importantly, since the skirmish started, the price action of the yuan against the dollar looks almost identical to the price action of gold […]
Cannabis Stocks In Focus After Tilray Gets DEA Approval To Import Cannabis Drug

Cannabis Stocks In Focus After Tilray Gets DEA Approval To Import Cannabis Drug

Shares of cannabis stocks are in focus after Canadian marijuana producer Tilray (TLRY) announced approval by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration to import a cannabinoid study drug into the U.S. from Canada. DEA APPROVAL: On Tuesday, Tilray announced that the U.S. DEA has granted approval to import a cannabinoid study drug into the U.S. for […]