Corporate Profits Forecast: Near The Bottom But No Strong Rebound Anytime Soon

Corporate Profits Forecast: Near The Bottom But No Strong Rebound Anytime Soon

Corporate profits dropped eight percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, most of the decline coming from petroleum and coal products. In fact, that sector’s profits were not only down; they turned from black ink to red ink in a single quarter. Without petroleum’s misfortune, corporate profits would have edged down only 1.7 percent. The remainder […]
Corporate Profits Forecast: Near The Bottom But No Strong Rebound Anytime Soon

Corporate Profits Forecast: Near The Bottom But No Strong Rebound Anytime Soon

Corporate profits dropped eight percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, most of the decline coming from petroleum and coal products. In fact, that sector’s profits were not only down; they turned from black ink to red ink in a single quarter. Without petroleum’s misfortune, corporate profits would have edged down only 1.7 percent. The remainder […]
USD/JPY And AUD/USD Forecast – March 30, 2016

USD/JPY And AUD/USD Forecast – March 30, 2016

USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair initially rallied during the course of the session on Tuesday, but turned back around to form a massively red candle. We are testing the 112.50 level below, which of course has been somewhat important recently. If we break down below there, we could go as low as the 111 handle, which […]
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                        The Daily Shot And Data – March 30, 2016

E The Daily Shot And Data – March 30, 2016

Greetings, Once again we begin with the United States where the Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a decisively dovish tone. Here is the key paragraph from her speech on Tuesday. Source: FRB She is basically saying that there is no rush to raise rates because the Fed has plenty of room to hike if inflation picks […]
ADP: U.S. Private Payrolls Rise By A Respectable 200,000 In March

ADP: U.S. Private Payrolls Rise By A Respectable 200,000 In March

U.S. companies added 200,000 jobs last month (seasonally adjusted), according to this morning’s update of the ADP Employment Report. Although March’s gain was slightly below the previous month’s increase, today’s release suggests that the year-over-year trend for private-sector job creation is settling in to a low-2% trend–a pace that’s strong enough, if sustained, to keep the US […]
“Bad News Is Great Again” – Global Stocks Soar After Yellen Admits Global Economy Is Much Weaker

“Bad News Is Great Again” – Global Stocks Soar After Yellen Admits Global Economy Is Much Weaker

At the end of the day, it was all about the dollar. Starting March 18, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot had risen as much as 1.9% as Fed officials including Lacker, Williams and Bullard noted upside risks on rate-hike projection and suggested a rate hike may be imminent as soon as April. And then Yellen unleashed […]
The Fed Thinks It Can Raise Rates With All This Going On

The Fed Thinks It Can Raise Rates With All This Going On

You’d think with all the geopolitical crises and a weak world economy that market fear and volatility would be high. Instead, over the last month or so, we’ve seen a few fits and starts in the equity markets, but stock indices are still sitting close to all-time highs. When the Fed raised rates last December, […]
State Street Agrees To Acquire GE Asset Management For $485M

State Street Agrees To Acquire GE Asset Management For $485M

State Street agrees to acquire GE Asset Management for $485M State Street (STT) announced that it has agreed to acquire GE Asset Management, an asset manager from GE (GE). The transaction is expected to increase SSGA’s assets under management by approximately $100B upon closing and add new alternatives capabilities, while strengthening existing fundamental equity and […]
ADP NFP +200K – USD Slightly Stronger

ADP NFP +200K – USD Slightly Stronger

200K private sector jobs were created in March, slightly better than expected. However, there was a downwards revision for February: 205K instead of 214K reported. The dollar is marginally stronger. The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls report was expected to show a gain of 194K private sector positions in March, slightly under the 214K seen in February (before revisions). […]
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                        The Effect Of Exchange Rate Shocks On Domestic Prices

EC The Effect Of Exchange Rate Shocks On Domestic Prices

Written by Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki, and Jozef Konings from Liberty Street Economics Changes in exchange rates directly affect import prices. Since the beginning of 2014, the U.S. dollar has strengthened by 17 percent against the currencies of its major trading partners while import prices have fallen by 4 percent. The pass-through from exchange rates into […]