Unparalleled Credit And Global Yields

Unparalleled Credit And Global Yields

New Fed Q4 Z.1 Credit and flow data was out this week. For the first time since 2007, annual Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) growth exceeded $2.0 TN – a bogey I’ve used as a rough estimate of sufficient new Credit to fuel self-reinforcing reflation. Based on some nebulous “neutral rate,” the Fed rationalizes that it’s […]
Canadian Dollar Remains Weak Thanks To Oil Decline, Data Generally Soft

Canadian Dollar Remains Weak Thanks To Oil Decline, Data Generally Soft

Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD: Bullish – USD/CAD has rallied towards the top of a six-month range but further weakness may lie ahead – Canadian unemployment data posts significant beat, stabilizing Loonie. – Fed rate decision, oil inventories on Wednesday likely to drive oil, with repercussions for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar has been range bound for the last six-months against the USD and […]
NZD/USD Forecast March 13-17

NZD/USD Forecast March 13-17

The New Zealand dollar suffered under the fresh strength of the US dollar and falling milk prices. The GDP report is left, right and center now. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. The GDT auction showed a drop in prices once again, and this time the rate was nearly double […]
Did Super Mario Draghi Lie To The Press?

Did Super Mario Draghi Lie To The Press?

A few weeks ago, Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, and ECB member Weidmann confirmed  interest rates would continue at a relatively low level as this would be very helpful for the governments of Eurozone countries to get their finances back under control. This indeed seemed to be absolutely necessary to us, and in […]
Hedge Funds Covered The Most S&P Shorts Since The Election, Sold Most USD/JPY In Three Years

Hedge Funds Covered The Most S&P Shorts Since The Election, Sold Most USD/JPY In Three Years

Looking at the most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report, BofA makes two notable observations ahead of what may be a volatile week between the Fed’s 25bps rate hike announcement on Wednesday, just hours after the Dutch General Election, and on the same day as the US debt ceiling expiration hits. The first is that […]
Markets Showing Unconfirmed Intermediate Top

Markets Showing Unconfirmed Intermediate Top

In the last letter, I mentioned that I had a P&F projection to 2400 and that, after a correction, there was a possibility that it could be followed by a push a little higher to about 2410. So far, so good. Reaching the target brought a forty-five-point retracement but, because it found support just above […]
“There’s No Diversification”: When This Ship Sinks, We’re All Going Down With It

“There’s No Diversification”: When This Ship Sinks, We’re All Going Down With It

“You heard it here first,” is becoming increasingly relevant here at HR. That doesn’t necessarily mean we’re over here cooking up scoops and exclusives, but what it does mean is that when it comes to putting the pieces together and saying: “here goddammit, this is what all of this means,” we’re quickly becoming second to […]
Life After The Robot Apocalypse

Life After The Robot Apocalypse

Two weeks ago, I compiled a list of the 5 jobs robots will take first. Last week, I compiled a list of the 5 jobs robots will take last. Both previous essays are about robots replacing human workers who do cognitive non repetitive work (such as middle managers, salespersons, tax accountants, and report writers) that most people […]
Buying Stalls

Buying Stalls

Over the past few weeks the number of bullish stocks on Twitter have fallen sharply. This indicates that buyers of the most bullish stocks dried up as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) pushed up into the 2400 area. Although buyers are slowing down, the sellers of bearish stocks haven’t materialized. That condition is keeping overall […]
Expectations Blur With Fed, BoE And BoJ Rate Decisions Ahead

Expectations Blur With Fed, BoE And BoJ Rate Decisions Ahead

Monetary policy isn’t the straightforward fundamental driver it once was. This past week, the Dollar struggled despite strong NFPs and a certainty of a FOMC hike while the Euro rallied after reports the ECB discussed the future of hikes. Be prepared for unusual response to the Fed, BoE, BoJ and even SNB decisions ahead. US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Will […]