Seasonal Surge In Claims

This morning’s release of Jobless claims came right in line with estimates of 220K and is only marginally higher than last week’s upwardly revised number of 219K. On a four-week moving average basis, claims have totaled 220.75K, matching the level from three weeks ago.As we noted last week, before seasonal adjustment, claims usually increase throughout the final months of the year, but the Thanksgiving holiday likely caused an unusual drop off in claims last week. Claims were back up this week with an increase to 293.5K which is the highest level since the start of the year. Versus comparable weeks of the year, that is the highest reading since 2018.Over the past few months, continuing claims have more consistently been grinding higher with last week marking the highest level in two years. The latest reading showed a modest pivot lower in continuing claims down to 1.861 million and matches the April high of 1.861 million.More By This Author:“Big” Drops In Treasury YieldsWeak ADP, Strong Russell 2000Sideways Range


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