ADP Jobs Data, March Service PMs, Powell, And The Fed Heads

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 Following a day off, the pace of March economic data picks back up today with ADP’s March Employment Change Report and back-to-back looks at the March Services PMIs. For ADP’s report out at 8:15 AM ET, the market expects that report to 148,000 jobs were added during the month, up from 140,000 in February and 111,000 in January. We will also be examining the wage data contained in that report – while the year-over-year gains have been trending down of late, in February the median change in annual pay for Job-Stayers rose 5.1% YoY while for Job-Changers it was up 7.6%.At 9:45 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET, the market expects Services PMI reports from S&P Global and ISM, respectively, to show that part of the economy continued to grow handsomely during March. Coming off the corresponding Manufacturing PMI reports for March that rekindled questions over the start of as well as the number of potential rate cuts this year, what this morning’s data says about inflation will be key to how equities trade this morning. Comments following that data deluge from four Fed officials, including Fed Chair Powell (12:10 PM ET) are likely to shape this afternoon’s trading session. Heading into this swirl of data this morning, US equity futures point to a lower open, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury is up slightly to 4.367%. 

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) halted some chipmaking and evacuated plants after the biggest earthquake to hit its home island in 25 years, raising concerns about disruptions to the global tech supply chain. Key customers include Apple(AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
  • Intel’s (INTC) stock fell over 4% after the company revealed an operating loss of $7 billion on revenues of $18.9 billion for its Foundry business in 2023 compared to the $5.2 billion loss of $27.5 billion in sales in 2022. Intel shared that Foundry’s operating losses are expected to peak this year and break even between the current quarter and 2030. The company targets becoming the second largest semiconductor foundry behind Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
  • Today, Disney (DIS) shareholders will settle a proxy battle led by billionaire investor Nelson Peltz. Voters will decide whether the company’s board deserves another year together, or if candidates nominated by activist investors, including Trian Partners’ Peltz, should replace certain directors.
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