Category Archive: Finance
December’s ECB Cheat Sheet: A Reality Check For Ultra-Dovish Expectations
The ECB will almost surely keep rates on hold at the December meeting. The question is to what extent it will align with the market’s aggressive pricing for rate cuts in 2024. We suspect it will fall short of endorsing ultra-dovish expectations. There is some upside room for EUR rates and the battered euro. Heading into the […]
Have Stock Traders Front-Run Santa Claus?
Yesterday we highlighted just how rapidly the market has adjusted its expectations for rate cuts. We pointed out that in the aftermath of the last FOMC meeting, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a high likelihood for a 25-basis point cut by June and three 25bp cuts by December, but we are now pricing in a […]
Is It Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas?
Image Source: Pexels In this episode, we discuss the impact of recent macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, on financial markets. They analyze the market’s reaction to Janet Yellen’s announcement on treasury issuance and Jerome Powell’s speech, which they perceive as more hawkish than expected. They also delve into the implications of bond market […]
A Rising Stock Market Does Not Drive Economic Growth
Image Source: Unsplash Many people believe that a general increase in stock prices is an important factor in economic growth. However, this is a questionable observation.The view that the stock market drives economic growth originates from the observation that changes in stock prices precede changes in economic data. We suggest that various economic indicators are heavily […]
USD/JPY Drops On Its Worst Day In Over A Year, Breaches 142.00
Image Source: Unsplash The USD/JPY is on pace to see it’s single worst trading day since November of 2022 after plunging over four percent on Thursday with a broad-market rally for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The USD/JPY tipped into its lowest bids in since August below 142.00 after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda […]
Shortages WASDE & Global Food Fight. The Corn & Ethanol Report
Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage rate at 11:00 A.M., Us Consumer Credit Change and Used […]
Lagged Effects Of Epic Tightening Cycle Will Intensify In 2024
Photo by Michelle Spollen on Unsplash Equifax Canada reports that Canadian households added $80 billion of additional consumer debt over the past year, taking the total outstanding an eye-watering $2.4 trillion.Well beyond paycheck to paycheck, many are living credit card to credit card. The average Canadian credit card balance rose to $4,119 in the third quarter, up from $3,727 […]
Update: These 7 Analysts To Miss Their 2023 Gold Price Targets – Badly
Image Source: Unsplash The following 7 analysts were brave enough, might we say foolish enough, to put their forecasts of where the price of gold would end up at by the end of 2023, in writing, which I highlighted in an article back on April 26th, and NONE of them have come even close with just […]
Navigating The Yen Surge In A Shifting Economic Landscape
Yen. Image Source: Pixabay In a surprising turn of events, the yen experienced a remarkable surge, marking its most substantial one-day rally in nearly a year. Triggered by an unexpected hint from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about a potential policy shift, markets reacted, particularly in terms of yen conversion. This article explores the implications of the BOJ’s […]
Seasonal Surge In Claims
This morning’s release of Jobless claims came right in line with estimates of 220K and is only marginally higher than last week’s upwardly revised number of 219K. On a four-week moving average basis, claims have totaled 220.75K, matching the level from three weeks ago.As we noted last week, before seasonal adjustment, claims usually increase throughout […]
