Macro: Factory Orders Remain Choppy

Macro: Factory Orders Remain Choppy

Image Source: PexelsSimilar to the Advanced Durable Goods orders released 2 weeks ago, broad factory orders remain choppy and have generally flat-lined or perhaps have a slight positive slope to their medium-term growth vector. YoY growth is 3.1%. This is up from -1.9% last month and continues to chop around the 0 to slightly positive line.GrowthDollarsMore […]
Why The Fed Sends Mixed Messages On Rate Cuts

Why The Fed Sends Mixed Messages On Rate Cuts

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes to its December meeting yesterday, and the minutes further strengthen the view held by many Wall Street investors and observers that the Fed plans to implement rate cuts by the middle of 2024. Specifically, the most recent Fed survey of market participants “suggested that the first reduction in […]
Six Measures Of NFP Employment

Six Measures Of NFP Employment

Image Source: PexelsNFP growth beats Bloomberg consensus by 46K (private NFP by 36K). Looking at several measures of NFP (total, private) suggests continued growth.Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue, left scale), from ADP (tan, left scale), total nonfarm payroll employment from CES (bold black, right scale), NFP adjusted for preliminary benchmark by author (red, […]
Macro: ISM Services

Macro: ISM Services

Image Source: Pexels The index is down from 52.7% in November to 50.6% in December. While current activity registered a jump to 56.6% from 55.1%, the composite is being held down by employment, inventories, trade and new orders. Employment — 50.7 in Nov to 43.3 in Dec, down 7.4% Inventories — 55.4 in Nov to 49.6 […]
Stocks Snap 9-Week Win Streak To Start 2024

Stocks Snap 9-Week Win Streak To Start 2024

Wall Street clawed into the black in the final minutes of Friday’s trading but still snapped its nine-week win streak to start the new year. Today’s struggling market came in the wake of a red-hot jobs reading that sent bond yields higher, sending the 10-year note to briefly touch 4.1%. The VIX closed lower but still logged […]
China’s Shadow-Banking Giant Files For Bankruptcy

China’s Shadow-Banking Giant Files For Bankruptcy

One of China’s “secretive” shadow-banking giants filed for bankruptcy on Friday due to its inability to repay tens of billions of dollars in debt, a warning sign contagion from the downturn in the real estate industry continues to spread and raises questions if the property crisis in the world’s second-largest economy will accelerate into the new year. 2023 […]
U.S. Jobs Report Suggests No Pressing Need For The Fed To Cut Rates

U.S. Jobs Report Suggests No Pressing Need For The Fed To Cut Rates

Solid employment gains, low unemployment and sticky wages suggest no immediate need for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Nonetheless, the jobs market is cooling and the concentration of employment gains in sectors viewed historically as being lower paid and more part-time raises some concerns. We think the Fed will wait until May before cutting rates.Image Source: Pexels […]
Stocks Bounce Back Despite Looming Weekly Losses

Stocks Bounce Back Despite Looming Weekly Losses

Stocks are higher today, but it’s likely a little too late for the three major indexes to avoid weekly losses. Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are firmly higher midday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is just above breakeven.After jobs data hinted at a red-hot labor market and spiked bond […]
GBP Stays Bid

GBP Stays Bid

Image Source: PexelsGBP Stays BidGBP has been one of the better performers against USD this week. Despite the broad strength we’ve seen across USD pairs, GBPUSD has remained well supported, even with today’s better-than-forecast US jobs data. One explanation for this is the latest BOE meeting which saw the bank striking a more hawkish tone than […]
Bull Of The Day: NRG Energy

Bull Of The Day: NRG Energy

NRG Energy (NRG) , a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), operates as an integrated power company in the United States. Renewed strength in interest rate sensitive utilities provides a durable backing for this industry leader. NRG stock is displaying relative strength, recently surging to 52-week highs even as the general market has encountered volatility early […]