Today’s Trading Plan: At Critical Support
Technical Outlook: S&P 500 (SPX) for a third straight day, tested the 2120 support level and held it. There hasn’t been a strong, sustained bounce off of this price level though to suggest the market is done with the current sell-off. On the SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) volume has decreased for a second straight day – volume readings remain well […]
Technological Progress In A Below Full Employment Economy
by Philip Pilkington I recently came across a rather interesting argument that the famous Post-Keynesian economist Abba Lerner made in relation to his well-known doctrine of Functional Finance. Basically Lerner said that labour-saving technological innovation in a below full employment economy was not particularly socially useful. Follow up: In a 2003 paper entitled Functional Finance and Unemployment: […]
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 1K From Last Week, Better Than Forecast
Written by Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 260,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s […]
Future Market Returns = Dividend Yield + Earnings Growth +/- Change In P/E Ratio
Vangaurd’s John Bogle has a simple formula for estimating future stock market returns which he has been using for 25 years and it’s worked the whole 25 years almost perfectly: Future Market Returns = Dividend Yield + Earnings Growth +/- Change in P/E Ratio. He says this formula currently gives him an estimate of stock market […]
Is It Time To Buy This Oracle Ahead Of Earnings?
Photo Credit:Peter Kaminski Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Information Technology – Software | Reports September 15, After Market Closes Oracle is scheduled to report first quarter earnings and kick off its fiscal 2017 today after the opening bell. The tech giant is typically one of the earlier reports in the season that doesn’t officially kick off until Alcoa’s […]
I’m Not Worried About This Round Of Oil Price Volatility
I’ve been forecasting low-$60 oil by the first quarter of 2017 since earlier this summer. As I mentioned last week, the signals I saw in New York and London recently, which essentially telegraphed an end to the supply glut and a firming “floor” of price support, only strengthen the case. In the meantime, a bit […]
Bank Of England Keeps Rate, QE Unchanged As Expected, Hints May Cut More
As was expected by the consensus of economists, and facilitated by the recent surge of positive economic data out of the UK, moments ago the BOE did not surprise, when it kept its interest rate at 0.25% after a unanimous 9-0 vote, which also included keeping the BOE’s government bond and corporate bond purchases unchanged […]
US Retail Sales Disappoint – Forget About A Hike – USD On The Back Foot
US retail sales disappoint with a drop of 0.3%, worse than expected. The small downwards revision does not help. The control group is down 0.1%, much worse than +0.3% expected and with a downwards revision. Other figures are poor as well. The USD is falling. US retail sales were expected to rise by 0.1% m/m […]
Morning Call For September 15, 2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 +0.24%) are up +0.45% and European stocks are up +0.20% ahead of a batch of U.S. economic data today on retail sales, producer prices and regional manufacturing surveys that may give clues as to the health of the economy. The BOE, as expected, voted 9-0 to keep […]
Yield Curve Breakout, Weekly View
A look at the yield curve by weekly chart. Sooner or later one of these breakouts will be real and it will signal the end of the era of confidence (that began with Bernanke’s heavy handed Operation Twist, a macro manipulation that was very boldly set in motion to “sanitize” inflation) in all-powerful central monetary policy planning. […]
