The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved. This series has been in a general downtrend since seen since November 2014. The three month rolling average is continuing to decline and is in contraction. Note that the headline “improvement” is on the back of a downwardly revised previous month data.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted new orders growth accelerated 5.3% (after decelerating a downwardly revised 3.2 % the previous month) month-over-month , and is down 0.6 % year-over-year.
the three month rolling average for unadjusted new orders decelerated 0.4% month-over-month, and down 3.1% year-over-year.
Year-over-Year Change of 3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)
Inflation adjusted but otherwise unadjusted new orders are down 1.9% year-over-year.
The Federal Reserve’s Durable Goods Industrial Production Index (seasonally adjusted) growth decelerated 0.3% month-over-month, up 1.7% year-over-year [note that this is a series with moderate backward revision – and it uses production as a pulse point (not new orders or shipments)] – three month trend is decelerating, and has been decelerating for a year..
Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Durable Goods Shipments (blue line) to Industrial Production Durable Goods (red line)
unadjusted backlog (unfilled orders) growth decelerated 0.9% month-over-month, up 4.7% year-over-year.
according to the seasonally adjusted data, it was civilian aircraft which accounted for the strength this month.
note this is labelled as an advance report – however, backward revisions historically are relatively slight.
Census Headlines:
new orders increased 3.4% month-over-month.
backlog (unfilled orders) increased 0.1% month-over-month.
the market expected (from Bloomberg):
| |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
| New Orders – M/M change |
0.6 % to 6.4 % |
+3.1 % |
+3.4 % |
| Ex-transportation – M/M |
0.0 % to 1.0 % |
+0.5 % |
+0.8 % |
