Durable Goods new orders has now fallen 5 months in a row (after revisions) flashing a orangey/red recession warning.
After 2 weak months, Durable Goods bounced more than expected in June (+3.4% vs +3.2% exp) – though non-seasonally-adjusted dropped 3.1% MoM. But ex-Transports remain deeply in recession territory.
There was an unexpected drop in Capital Goods Shipments non-defense Ex-Air which fell 0.1% (against expectations of a 0.6% rise), but mostly worrying is that Core CapEx collapsed 6.6% YoY – the second biggest decline since Lehman.
We are going to need much more double-seasonal-adjustments to fix this data.
Charts: Bloomberg, ZH
