NFP Cements Rate Hike With 235k, Wages Up 2.8% M/m – USD Sells The Fact


NFP beats expectations with 235K and January revised higher to 238K. The unemployment rate drops to 4.7%. Wages are up 0.2% m/m, slightly below predictions but the previous month was revised up. The “real unemployment rate” falls to 9.2%. All in all, a solid report.

The dollar is sliding across the board. It seems like a “sell the fact” phenomenon.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report was expected to show a gain of around 185K (or 220K after the strong ADP). More importantly, wages carried expectations for a rise of 0.3% m/m and around 2.8% y/y.

The bar was very low for a rate hike in five days time. Fed Chair Janet Yellen basically told us that a hike is coming barring any disaster. Given the late publication, on the tenth, the Fed may have already had the data.

February 2017 NFP Data (updated)

  • Non-Farm Payrolls:  235K (exp. +185K, whisper 220K, last 227K before revisions)
  • Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% m/m with an upgrade to January: 0.2% against 0.1%, 2.8% y/y(exp. +0.3% m/m, last month 0.1% m/m, 2.5% y/y)
  • Revisions+9K (-39KK  last time).
  • Participation Rate: 63% (62.9% last month )
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.7%   (exp.4.8%, last month 4.8%)
  • Private Sector: 227K (ADP showed 298K).
  • Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 9.2% (previous: 9.4%).
  • Employment to population ratio: 60% (previous: 59.9%)
  • Average workweek: 34.4K (last month: 34.4).
  • NFP Currency Reaction

  • EUR/USD was around 1.06 enjoying the Draghi boost. The pair advances and challenges resistance at 1.0630.
  • GBP/USD was trading at low ground around 1.2160. A messy Brexit weighs.
  • USD/JPY traded on high ground at 115.40, reflecting USD strength.
  • USD/CAD was around 1.3507. CAD plunged with Crude.
  • AUD/USD traded around 0.7520.
  • NZD/USD traded around 0.6910, suffering the spilled milk.
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