Euro Surges As Draghi Speaks, GDP Outlook Revised Up, Inflation Path Down


Having kept the bits about increasing QE in “size and duration” unchanged in the statement, Draghi will now try and finesse things in the press conference.

“If they had removed the part of scaling up, then the euro would have become stronger, and he is trying to avoid that,” Danske Bank A/S analyst Jens Peter Sorensen says. “The ECB is trying to kill volatility in the markets.”

So let’s see if they can succeed.

In the opening statement at the presser, Draghi said recent euro volatility is a source of uncertainty. He also notes that rates will remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and past the end of QE (we already knew that of course).

Confirming that the only option here is to stand pat unless you want to risk a dramatic appreciation in the currency, he says QE will run at EU60b/month through at least December and until ECB sees sustained inflation pickup.

The medium-term outlook is “broadly unchanged,” he contends before saying he’ll decide on policy calibration in the fall.

Here are the updated projections:

  • ECB CUTS 2018 INFLATION FORECAST TO 1.2%, 2019 TO 1.5%
  • ECB RAISES 2017 GDP FORECAST TO 2.2%, FASTEST SINCE 2007
  • The euro is now on the move, extending earlier gains, in what looks like confirmation of the notion that he isn’t going to be able to find the right words to arrest the ascent:

    EURUSD

     

    Developing…

    Full opening remarks:

    Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that our net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €60 billion, are intended to run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases are made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme.

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