Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Friday’s intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved partly wrong because the S&P 500 index remained within relatively narrow intraday trading range. Overall, it lost 0.1%. The index may retrace some of its recent rally today, as investors will likely continue taking short-term profits off the table. Therefore, intraday short position is favored. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,565 and potential profit target is at 2,530 (S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.1% and +0.1% on Friday, following worse-than-expected monthly jobs data release. The S&P 500 index remained close to its Thursday’s new all-time high at the level of 2,552.51. It fluctuated within Thursday’s trading range. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded close to new record high of 22,777.04, and the technology Nasdaq Composite reached new record high of 6,590.18, as it gained 0.1% on Friday. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,540, marked by some recent fluctuations. The next support level is at 2,520-2,530, marked by last Tuesday’s daily gap up of 2,519.44-2,520.40 and short-term local lows. The support level is also at 2,500-2,510, marked by previous level of resistance and local highs. The S&P 500 index accelerated its uptrend recently. We still can see medium-term negative technical divergences along with technical overbought conditions. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far:
Positive Expectations
Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.2% vs. Friday’s closing prices. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. There will be no new important economic data releases today. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it retraces its recent move down. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,550, marked by new record high. On the other hand, level of support is at 2,535-2,540, marked by previous resistance level. The next support level is at 2,530, marked by short-term consolidation. The support level is also at 2,520-2,525, marked by recent local lows. The futures contract remains above its short-term upward trend line as the 15-minute chart shows:
