A Copper Price Forecast For 2019 -

A Copper Price Forecast For 2019

Nov 27, 2018Jeremy ParkinsonFinance, No picture0

The price of copper did not perform well this year, after being amazingly bullish a year ago. What is 2019 going to bring for the price of copper? This article features our copper price forecast for 2019.

One very important remark before we look into our copper price forecast for 2019: copper is, similar to silver, a restless metal. It does not rise often, but once it starts rising it goes up extremely fast in a very short time period.

We do not want to be invested in the copper market for an extended period of time because the probability of profits is low. That’s why copper is, by far, a market to enter and exit by its chart setups. This is relevant to practically any market in the world, but it applies much more to copper is our point.

Copper Price Forecast for 2019: Supply Forecast

Let’s start by a supply forecast in the physical copper market.

The International Copper Study Group published recently their copper supply forecast for 2019.

After a decline of 1.5% in 2017, world mine production, after adjusting for historical disruption factors, is expected to grow by around 2% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019:

World mine production decreased by 1.5% in 2017 due to significant supply disruptions and a lack of significant output from new projects or expansions, but is expected to grow by 2% this year.

Most of the growth expected in 2018 is due to the recovery from constrained output last year.

No major supply disruptions have occurred so far in 2018 and most labour negotiations have been agreed. However, overall growth has been negatively affected by lower output at some mines in Canada and operational problems in China, Peru and the United States. As a consequence the ICSG growth forecast for mine production has been revised down to 2% compared with the previous forecast of 2.9% made in April this year.

Growth in 2019 world mine production, adjusted for disruptions, is predicted to be around 1.2% and is expected to be impacted by a sharp decline in Indonesian output.