This morning’s release of the October Existing-Home Sales was down from the previous month’s revised figure to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.22 million units. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.30 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 4.1% decrease year-over-year.
Here is an excerpt from today’s report from the National Association of Realtors.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says increasing housing inventory has brought more buyers to the market. “After six consecutive months of decline, buyers are finally stepping back into the housing market,” he said. “Gains in the Northeast, South and West – a reversal from last month’s steep decline or plateau in all regions – helped overall sales activity rise for the first time since March 2018.” [Full Report]
For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. The data since January 1999 was previously available in the St. Louis Fed’s FRED repository and is now only available from January 2018. It can be found here.
Over this time frame, we clearly see the Real Estate Bubble, which peaked in 2005 and then fell dramatically. Sales were volatile for the first year or so following the Great Recession.
The Population-Adjusted Reality
Now let’s examine the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau’s mid-month population estimates show an 18.4% increase in the US population since the turn of the century. The snapshot below is an overlay of the NAR’s annualized estimates with a population-adjusted version.
Existing-home sales are 0.2% below the NAR’s January 2000 estimate. The population-adjusted version is 14.7% below the turn-of-the-century sales.
Existing-Home Sales Median Prices for Single Family Homes
We’ve added a chart for the last 12 months of Existing-home sales median prices for single-family homes for reference.
