The headlines say the durable goods new orders declined. Our analysis shows the rolling averages declined.
Analyst Opinion of the Durable Goods Situation
Defence and civilian aircraft was the main headwind this month in the adjusted data. This series has wide swings monthly so our primary metric is the unadjusted three month rolling average – which declined but is still growing faster than GDP.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted new orders growth accelerated 1.5 % (after decelerating 7.3 % the previous month) month-over-month and is up 7.5 % year-over-year.
the three month rolling average for unadjusted new orders decelerated 1.0 % month-over-month, and up 9.0 % year-over-year.
Year-over-Year Change of 3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)
Inflation adjusted but otherwise unadjusted new orders are up 5.5 % year-over-year.
Backlog (unfilled orders) decelerated 0.3 % month-over-month, and is up 4.8 % year-over-year.
The Federal Reserve’s Durable Goods Industrial Production Index (seasonally adjusted) growth up 0.5 % month-over-month, up 4.3 % year-over-year [note that this is a series with moderate backward revision – and it uses production as a pulse point (not new orders or shipments)] – three month trend is decelerating.
Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Durable Goods Shipments (blue line) to Industrial Production Durable Goods (red line)
note this is labeled as an advance report – however, backward revisions historically are relatively slight.
Census Headlines:
new orders down 4.4 % month-over-month.
backlog (unfilled orders) down 0.2 % month-over-month.
the market expected (from Econoday):
| |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
| New Orders – M/M change |
-3.5 % to -1.0 % |
-2.4 % |
-4.4% |
| Ex-transportation – M/M |
0.2 % to 1.0 % |
+0.4 % |
+0.1 % |
| Core capital goods – M/M change |
0.2 % to 1.5 % |
+0.3 % |
+0.0 % |
