Thoughts For Thursday: AI In Ascendence


Lots of things going on, but AI is what is moving the market. Nvidia put out good results yesterday and we can expect interest in smaller rivals to add action to the mix. depositphotos On Wednesday the market corrected down just slightly. The S&P 500 closed at 5,307, down 14 points, the Dow closed at 39,671, down 202 points and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 16,802, down 31 points. Chart: The New York Times Most actives were led by Tesla (TSLA), down 3.5%, followed by Nvidia (NVDA), down 0.5% and Advanced Micro Devices (ADM), up 0.5%. Chart: The New York Times In morning options trading, S&P 500 market futures are up 26 points, Dow market futures are up 27 points and Nasdaq 100 market futures are up 145 points.TalkMarkets contributor  Mark Vickery reports Nvidia Puts Up Great Q1 Numbers, +100% YTDPixabay Markets closed in negative territory across the board today. After a rather uneventful morning that saw major indices tread water at the breakeven point with yesterday’s close, the FOMC minutes from the April 30-May 1 meeting were released at 1:30pm ET this afternoon. An hour later, the indices were at session lows…What was in the Fed minutes? Basically, the lack of recent progress toward their +2% inflation objective has frustrated some of the FOMC members. There was even a willingness — on the part of some, not all — to actually raise rates in the future should risks to inflation materialize. Many of these concerns have been abated since, however: a somewhat shrinking labor force and a dwindling Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that the economy appears to have righted its course in the past few weeks.None of this really matters at this hour, anyway. NVIDIA, perhaps the world’s most important company as of today, reported Q1 earnings after Wednesday’s close. Unsurprisingly, the graphics chips innovator clobbered expectations on the bottom line — earnings of $6.12 per share, well above the $5.49 anticipated and a whopping +561% year over year. Revenues of $26.00 billion outpaced the $24.33 billion in the Zacks consensus.Next-quarter revenue growth has been raised to roughly $28 billion, +/-1-2%. Q2 non-GAAP gross margins reached +75.5% in the quarter with record-setting Data Center revenues: $22.6 billion — nearly the full amount of sales NVIDIA had in the quarter — amounts to +23% growth quarter over quarter, and a jaw-dropping +427% year over year.“The next industrial revolution has begun,” crowed CEO Jensen Huang. Further, the company is offering a 10 to 1 stock split to investors to go along with a cash dividend of 1 cent per share post-split. In short, this may be the most impressive earnings report since Steve Jobs was still making it rain for Apple (AAPL).”Cpntributor Declan Fallon posits on yesterday’s action in Russell 2000 Drops Back Into Consolidation.”Sellers made more of an impression on the markets today. The Russell 2000 (IWM) dropped out of its ‘bull trap’ challenge and into its prior base. In doing so, the underperformance relative to the Nasdaq accelerated, although other technicals are net positive. After today, the move to test the 20-day MA looks the most likely outcome over the coming days.
The S&P managed to hold on to its breakout. Today’s losses were relatively minor, and the index finished with a ‘bullish hammer’, although the significance of this candle requires an oversold momentum state for it to act as a rallying point. Volume rose to rank as confirmed distribution, but until the breakout reverses the volume selling is not so relevant.
The Nasdaq experienced a similar level of selling as the S&P. Unlike the S&P, the Nasdaq registered a ‘sell’ in On-Balance-Volume. The key advantage this index has over its peers is that it’s the relative outperformer, and therefore the market leader. What goes here should go for other indices.”See the full article for the Nasdaq chart.Commodities and Forex take us away from the NYSE and pull us into the ROTW. Contributors Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey take on natural gas and metals in The Commodities Feed: Gas Supply Risksdepositphotos “European natural gas prices have hit their highest level since January. TTF prices settled 4.2% higher yesterday at almost EUR34.39/MWh. This is after the Austrian energy company, OMV, warned that there was a risk that Russian pipeline flows to Austria could be halted after a court ruling that would block payment for natural gas delivered by Russia’s Gazprom Export. However, it is unclear if the ruling will be enforced. The supply at risk is 6 bcm per year supplied by Gazprom under a long-term contract to OMV for delivery into Austria. Austria still receives almost all of its gas supplies from Russia. In March, 93% of Austria’s gas imports came from Russia. While a potential stoppage in these flows could lead to some localized tightening in the gas market, Europe as a whole should manage…Weakness in oil prices increases the likelihood that OPEC+ members fully roll over their additional voluntary supply cuts into the second half of the year.Weekly data from the EIA yesterday showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.83m barrels WoW, while crude oil stocks at Cushing increased by 1.33m barrels. For refined products, gasoline stocks fell by 945k barrels and distillate stocks increased by 379k barrels…The latest data from the World Steel Association (WSA) shows that global steel production declined by 5% YoY to 155.7mt in April, following lower output from major producers like China, Japan, Russia and South Korea. Cumulatively, global steel output fell almost 1% YoY to 625.4mt over the first four months of the year. Chinese steel production decreased 7.2% YoY to 85.9mt last month, whilst cumulative output fell 3% YoY to 343.7mt. Output from South Korea, Russia and Japan declined by 10.4% YoY, 5.7% YoY and 2.5% YoY respectively in April.” cMore By This Author:Tuesday Talk: Relative Calm Prevails
Thoughts For Thursday: New Highs Are Here
Tuesday Talk: Market Stays Steady

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