Returns On Capital–And Interest Rates–Will Be Low In The Future
Returns on capital have been low for most investments. Ten-year U.S. treasury bond rates averaged three percentage points above inflation from the 1950s up until the last recession started. Since the end of the recession, those bonds have yielded just one percentage point more than inflation. Stock market returns adjusted for inflation averaged lower than historic averages in the […]
How Amazon Is Becoming A Major Player In Finance
It was never about the books. Jeff Bezos may have launched Amazon as an Internet book seller, but he quickly turned Amazon into an overall ecommerce powerhouse. There’s little that Amazon isn’t in to these days. Amazon still sells books but it’s also one of the leading cloud technology providers via its technology unit, Amazon Web Services […]
One Of Paul Tudor Jones’ Favorite Indicators Suggests The Bear Market In Gold Is Over
As the best-performing asset class in Q1 there has been a lot of talk about gold lately. The debate seems to focus on whether this strength marks the end of the four-year bear market for the precious metal or whether it’s just another counter-trend rally. Looking at the chart above, I’m reminded of a quote from […]
Stock Market Performance By Presidential Administrations
It is leap year and Wall St. is having its usual discussion of which candidate will be better for the stock market. I do not know, but it is interesting to look at the historic record. Starting with Truman makes a good comparison as Republican and Democrats have served almost the same number of years […]
A Yen For Yen
Today’s big reversal to the upside in stocks across the board can be explained with three letters: O, I, and L. As I’m typing this, crude is up over 5%. Of course, market pundits love oil, because they use it to explain equity strength irrespective of direction. If oil is up, then that shows the […]
Silver Jewelry Sales Strong, Reflecting Broader Demand For The White Metal
The market for silver jewelry grew in 2015, mirroring an overall surge in demand for the white metal, according to a survey report released yesterday by the Silver Institute: Silver jewelry sales in the United States were solid in 2015 with 60% of jewelry retailers reporting increased sales, according to a survey conducted on behalf of the […]
Pfizer – Allergan Deal’s Cancellation Loses Investment Banks Millions
Pfizer (PFE) and Allergan (AGN) announced that they’re canceling their planned merger because of new tax limitations on inversion deals, and this is apparently hitting the investment banks that were handling the transaction to the tune of $350 million. The merger between the two drug companies was estimated to be the biggest deal ever, and in a […]
4 Sector ETFs At A Bargain
A string of woes hurt the U.S. market momentum in the first quarter of 2016 with the S&P 500 barely adding gains thanks to global growth issues and persistent worries in the oil patch. Many, including the Republican favorite for president, Donald Trump, believe that the U.S. economy may bump into a recession due to […]
Healthcare Almost To Target
Here’s the XLV weekly chart again. It’s closer still to the top channel line. The daily view is kissing the SMA 200. I sold XLV but still hold my fair haired boy, device maker Boston Scientific. This is not to say XLV has to stop here, but the target was 70 and that’s […]
E Seeing Red Flags Everywhere
During Operation Desert Storm in 1991, Central Command asked me to fly a top secret mission to Lebanon in my twin engine Cessna 340. Mission accomplished, I flew home on a 270-degree heading over the Eastern Mediterranean at an altitude of 200 feet, in order to stay under the radar. It was a warm, hazy […]
