One Look At This Simple Indicator Reminds Us That We Still Must Be Careful

I want to thank you for reading these pages. It is my honor to have the privilege of writing my thoughts about the markets for you. I am thankful that hundreds of thousands of you care enough about your investments to have an interest in those thoughts from time to time. I know that my message has not been an easy one to digest, certainly not as easy as that tiny plate of turkey, stuffing, and cranberry sauce you had on Thursday afternoon!

Meanwhile, the stock market has finally begun to confirm what macro liquidity analysis has been telling us for many months. You MUST preserve your capital! But while you’re doing that, there are always ways to profit from the markets regardless of their direction,

Read on to see why for now and the foreseeable future, you must preserve your capital. And I’ll also give you a suggestion on how you can still profit.

Macro Liquidity Analysis Told Us Precisely What Would Happen!

Today, I was thinking about how the market has played out along the lines of what macro liquidity analysis suggested over a year ago. It may have taken a brief detour in the final stock market blowoff in the third quarter, but the scenario we expected has started to play out since then. Meanwhile, the bond market has behaved according to Hoyle almost throughout the period.

Today, I’d like to reprise and update a post that I wrote more than a year ago, on October 17, 2017. It turns out to have been exceptionally prescient then, and its message continues to be extremely important.

As you know, I spend most of my time analyzing macro liquidity trends, not just as they apply to stock prices, but also as they apply to the U.S. Treasury market. These are the forces that establish the market context. The question is whether these forces are bullish or bearish.

That establishes the bias for analyzing the price charts of stocks and bonds, which is where we attempt to fine tune the timing. Charts can be ambiguous. Understanding the underlying liquidity trend helps to clear up that ambiguity.


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