Trading The DFMGI Index
The DFMGI features 36 members, and midday on Monday 4 April 2016 the index featured 20 members up and 4 members down. The index has a year to date return of 7.22% and a 1-year return of -3.29%. On Monday, 4 April, the index closed at 3,378.54 for a gain of 2.28% or 75.31 points […]
EUR/USD And GBP/USD Forecast – April 5, 2016
EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair fell initially during the course of the day on Monday, but then turned right back around to form a hammer. The hammer of course is a very positive sign, and as a result it is a market that will continue to grind its way higher. The 1.14 level begins a significant […]
Two U.S. Labor Market Indexes Predict Slower Employment Growth
Job growth in March posted a solid gain, inspiring a new round of upbeat comments on the outlook for U.S. payrolls and the economy generally. But newly minted numbers for two multi-factor measures of the labor market hint at a weakening trend. In contrast with the upbeat message in the latest data for payrolls, broadly defined benchmarks of the […]
EC Fed Should Establish A Schedule For Raising Interest Rates
Janet Yellen has gone out of her way to reassure financial markets that the Fed will raise interest rates very slowly, but she would do well to lay out a schedule for rate increases. After keeping the federal funds rate—the overnight rate banks pay each other for loans—near zero for seven years, the Fed raised […]
EC Wage Growth Tracker – Wage Inflation Is Already Here
I am often critical of central banks these days, and especially the Federal Reserve. But that doesn’t mean I think the entire institution is worthless. While quite often the staff at the Fed puts out papers that use convoluted and inscrutable mathematics to “prove” something that only works because the assumptions used are garbage, there are also […]
Oil Prices Likely To Remain Volatile
Oil prices were collapsing earlier this year, but they’ve since rebounded nearly 60% from their February lows. Is the price going to keep rising? Personally, I don’t think so. I think the price is likely to fall back down towards the recent lows, although probably not that low again. But in any case, I expect […]
UK Services PMI At 53.7 – GBP Frowns
The services sector in the UK is growing at a faster pace in March: 53.7 points according to Markit’s PMI. This was more or less as expected and given the current market mood, there may be a sigh of relief. However, this does not really cheer GBP/USD which remains only barely above the 1.42 level. The UK services PMI […]
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – April 5, 2016
S&P 500 The S&P 500 initially rose during the course of the day on Monday but found the 2080 handle to be a bit too resistive. However, it should be noted that the initial move higher was a gap, and that typically means an impulsive move that will get followed. With that, it’s very likely […]
E Are We At A Fear Fatigue Juncture In The VIX?
We’ve all heard a steady drumbeat of negative developments about oil, bad debt, sluggish economies, blah, blah for well over a year now. And we’ve seen some unsettling rallies in the VIX associated with all this, but now the AAII Sentiment Survey has just a 24% bearish reading. The mean is about 30% with one standard deviation […]
Was There A Run On The Bank? JPM Caps Some ATM Withdrawals
Under the auspices of “protecting clients from criminal activity,” JPMorgan Chase has decided to impose withdrawal limits on certain ATM transactions. As WSJ reports, following the bank’s ATM modification to enable $100-bills to be dispensed with no limit, some customers started pulling out tens of thousands of dollars at a time. This apparent bank run has prompted Jamie Dimon […]
