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Archives by Year:
AUD/USD Forecast October 1-5
The Australian dollar slipped back after jumping in the previous week. Where will it go next? The rate decision by the RBA and retail sales stand out in the first week of Q4. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The US dollar emerged as a winner from the Fed decision. The […]
Learning From History And Modeling: Chinese Trade Retaliation Choices
An interesting symposium in the 2nd Quarter 2018 issue of Choices, published by the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, deals with the impact of Chinese trade retaliation aimed against US agricultural exports. Some reading to contemplate this graph by: Source: Slok, “Global markets: US overheating and Treasury supply pushing US rates up. Trade wars and Turkey pulling […]
Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus – Sunday, Sept.30
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to […]
Why Major U.S. Financial Companies Avoid The Crypto Market
Major U.S. companies have been avoiding the crypto market for a long time. And now, according to Mike Novogratz, a prominent investor and former hedge fund manager at Fortress Investment Group, there is a major reason for this. The founder of Galaxy Digital, a cryptocurrency merchant bank, he recently talked about the issue at the Yahoo Finance […]
Is Bitcoin Finally Settling In To Be A Useful Diversifier?
I’ve long been intrigued with cryptocurrencies (not an early adopter by any means though) and whether the space can evolve into some sort of portfolio diversifier that I can use for clients. I had a short term trade (just a couple of weeks) in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in the middle of it’s parabolic […]
Jobless Claims Spike 12,000 Mostly Due To Hurricane Florence
As predicted, the jobless claims report was the first one to show weakness related to Hurricane Florence. Jobless claims were 214,000 which was a 12,000 increase from the previous week. The 4 week moving average only increased 250 to 206,250. It was 1,000 higher than the consensus estimate. Almost the entire reason for the increase was […]
GDP Estimates Dive Following Trade And Income Data
GDP estimates generally tanked this week. Curiously, the Nowcast forecast rose. I can show why. GDPNow The GDPNow forecast fell from 4.4% on September 26 to 3.8% on September 27, then to 3.6% on September 28. Disastrous trade data accounted for 0.5 percentage points of the drop on the 27th. Income and expenditures accounted for the entire […]
Gold: New Bull Or Same Old Bear?
There are two schools of thought right now, and both sides are firmly convinced they are correct. The bullish case: Gold started a new cyclical bull market in late 2015. The bearish case: The bounce out of the 2015 bottom was just a counter trend bear market rally, and at best gold is stuck in a long […]
Fourth Quarter Forecasts For Dollar, Euro, Oil, Equities And More
The third quarter is now in the books, and the revival of market volatility and uncertainty around key thematic influences carries over into the fourth quarter of 2018. With fundamental issues around US-led trade wars, Brexit, the Italian government, Turkey, emerging market contagion, among others lingering, the final three months of the year should produce […]
