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Archives by Year:
Weighing The Week Ahead: Asking The Right Questions
There is a big economic calendar featuring the most important monthly reports – employment, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, and auto sales. In normal times we would be analyzing the data and the implications for corporate earnings and interest rates. There will be some of that, of course, but the “real” market news seems to be […]
COT Report: Canadian Dollar Traders Increasingly Optimistic
In this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, there are several significant changes in speculator positioning across major currencies and commodities. For the second week in a row, speculators made significant adjustments to their positions in the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and the British pound. The biggest change this week (as a proportion of open interest) […]
Market Cruises Just Above Storm Clouds
After a week fraught with news and emotions, the market managed to fly above the fray. Although SPY closed red, it is holding support and still has an underlying upward sloping 50 day moving average. However, it closed under its fast moving average, which is beginning to show a downward slope. NASDAQ (QQQ), fared better. Plus, […]
Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, Sept. 30
The Australian dollar has struggled during the week after initially trying to rally. At this point, it looks like the market is trying to find some type of support, but I think we continue to be range bound between the 0.7350 level above, and the 0.7150 level below. Certainly, being in a downtrend makes selling […]
Tesla The Tantalizing: SEC Settlement Likely Confirms Trading Range
On Friday evening, headlines screamed that Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk had reportedly made a surprisingly bold and extremely risky decision to fight charges of fraud by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). On Saturday, it looked like reason and rationality prevailed with an official announcement of a settlement deal issuing a slap on the wrist including a $40 million fine […]
JPMorgan Sees Full-Blown US-China Trade War In “New Baseline”; Could “End US Stock Market Rally”
With US traders still blissfully ignoring the consequences of escalating trade war between the US and China, which has yet to make any material dent on either the US economy or S&P 500 corporate profits, prominent sellside banks have increasingly taken to issuing louder warnings about how they see said conflict progressing. Late last week, […]
Boomer Super Cycle Unique In Human History – Deutsche Bank
“The 1950-2000 period is like no other in human or financial history in terms of population growth, economic growth, inflation or asset prices.” This quote isn’t from ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How Western BabyBoomers are Changing Demand Patterns, Again‘, the very popular ebook that John Richardson and I published in 2011. […]
Book Review: Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle
Howard Marks, cochairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing, expands on one of his twenty “most important things” in Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2018). Marks paints in broad strokes, so the reader will not come away from this book with any concrete […]
Drivers: The Week Ahead
Four events stand out in the first week of October: the situation in Italy, UK Prime Minister May’s speech at the Tory Party Conference, the EMU PMI, and the US jobs data. We suspect that the market overreacted to the Italian government’s 2.4% deficit projection. It is not an unreasonable outcome given the election. Italy […]
British Pound Q4 Forecast: Pound Traders Will Find Brexit Remains The Driver
As we enter the fourth quarter of 2018, the British Pound is picking itself up from its lows comparable to those plunged in summer 2017, and starting to re-coup some of this year’s losses. The driver for this move is not monetary policy, nor recent data that has held up well in the face of […]
