Regression To Trend: Another Look At Long-Term Market Performance – Tuesday, September 5
Quick take: At the end of August the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 103% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let’s apply […]
The Effects Of Hurricane Harvey
Unless you’ve been away from a TV, computer or smartphone for the past week, you’ve likely seen scores of pictures and videos of the unprecedented devastation that Hurricane Harvey has brought to South Texas and Louisiana. As a Texan by way of Canada, I’d like to take a moment to reflect on the human […]
July 2017 Manufacturing New Orders Decline
US Census says manufacturing new orders slowed. Out analysis agrees – but the rolling averages improved. Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was civilian aircraft that caused the decline. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which […]
Hot Options Alert: Midday – Tuesday, Sept. 5
The most active equity options and strikes for midday: BAC, AAPL, INTC, SGMS, NTNX, QCOM, FCX.
Demand Dearth
The fundamental problem is that we don’t know what’s wrong. In many ways that is a worse condition because it is one step further removed from a solution. Even after ten years “we” still have to prove that the one thing everyone largely believes can’t be the depressing issue is. Earlier this year as the […]
S&P Plunges To Critical Technical Support As VIX Spikes
With spiking above 13, US equity markets appear to be suddenly waking up to the potential that The Fed’s constant stream of positivity was smoke and mirrors all along and a September full of massive event risk probably doesn’t warrant buying the record high… As VIX breaks out… S&P 500 is tumbling towards its 50-day moving […]
The Ratio Of Part-Time Employed: August 2017
Let’s take a close look at the latest employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government’s Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) […]
Manufactured Goods Orders Decline 3.3 Percent: Good News?
In a widely expected result, new orders for manufactured goods fell 3.3% in July according to the Census Bureau. Don’t give economists too much credit because the advance report two weeks ago provided insight. Econoday claims the report is entirely good news. There’s really only good news in the July factory orders report where the headline, at […]
Gold: Book Profits Now
Gold has staged a fabulous rally from about $1220 to $1245. Using the December futures price chart, I’ve defined the $1300 – $1350 area as a spectacular profit booking opportunity for investors. I’m an eager gold bullion seller now, but I’m less eager to sell gold stocks or silver bullion. That’s because they have not taken out […]
Stocks Fall, VIX Spikes As DACA News Adds To List Of Worries
It’s safe to say that the market is pricing in some kind of political risk around the administration’s highly contentious decision to end DACA. This was, of course, predictable (both the rescinding of the program and the political firestorm it will invariably engender), but this looks like a bridge too far for U.S. equities that […]
