High Yield: Risk Going ‘Off’?
This little short-term pattern does not look too appealing as HYG looks foiled on its 3rd attempt at the 200 day moving average. High Yield vs. Treasury is dropping below the SMA 50 in a similarly gross looking pattern. Finally, HY vs. Investment Grade is even worse. These charts made hard bottoms […]
Why Precious Metal Rally On Track
So it was the biggest bounce in stocks since 1933, and best quarter for gold since the 70’s. None of this should surprise you based on what’s going on out there (think all forms of debasement), but for us the most important observation is gold has signaled it’s ready to start its next leg higher. Silver should […]
Greek Debt: Back In The Headlines
The issue of Greece’s insolvency had receded a bit from the headlines since the stormy days of last summer. Alpha-savvy readers will surely recall, though, that in July 2015, the Greek government and its European creditors reached a bailout agreement that required actions by the former, especially on pensions and taxes. Some violence in the […]
February 2016 Trade Data Improved
A quick recap to the trade data released today continues to paint a relatively dismal an improving picture of global trade. The unadjusted three month rolling average value of exports and imports accelerated. Many care about the trade balance which degraded. Import goods growth has positive implications historically to the economy – and the seasonally […]
How To Build A Unicorn From Scratch – And Walk Away With Nothing
This is a grim fairy tale about a mythical company and its mythical founder. While I concocted this story, I did so by drawing upon my sixteen years of experience as a venture capitalist, plus the fourteen years I spent before that as an entrepreneur. I’m going to use some pretty simple math and some […]
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Beats With 54.5 – USD Extends Gains
The US services sector is doing better than expected: the ISM PMI shows a score of 54.5 points. Among the components, the employment sector returns to expansionary territory with 50.3 points, new orders are up to 56.7 and prices paid are up to 49.1 points. So, prices are still falling, but at a slower pace. The […]
E The Daily Shot And Data – April 5, 2016
Greetings, Let’s begin with a few developments in Japan. 1. Dollar-yen fell below 111 as the yen continues to strengthen. Source: barchart This is in spite of the BoJ suggesting that the central bank could push rates deeper into negative territory. Source: MarketWatch 2. Here is the Nikkei 225 response to the yen strengthening, Source: […]
E Unprecedented Transparency
Unprecedented Transparency Unprecedented transparency into offshore tax-haven activities have a few ramifications beyond the obvious money laundering or semi-legal funding of holdings (if disclosed to tax authorities, at least as relates to US law). One might be the global expose of troves concealing funds (that makes popular news; like the FOP’s (Friends of Putin) often […]
Valeant Stock Soars After Its Own Board Clears Itself Of Any More Wrongdoing, Will File 10-K
Valeant may be on the verge of a technical default as its lender demand not one but two pounds of flesh, it may be suffering imploding sales, it may have fired the entire salesforce for the female libido drug Addyi (which it acquired late last year), and it may be trying to pin all of its allegedly criminal book-cooking […]
Healthcare Revisited
Regarding the recent posts on Healthcare, I took the profit on PFE [edit: AMGN targets higher but taking that profit too] for two reasons; 1) As noted in NFTRH 389 I have a desire to raise cash levels and 2) I watched the most disgusting documentary on Sunday called American Addict. It was a sobering look at the grift if […]
