The Ratio Of Part-Time Employed: August 2017
Let’s take a close look at the latest employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government’s Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) […]
Manufactured Goods Orders Decline 3.3 Percent: Good News?
In a widely expected result, new orders for manufactured goods fell 3.3% in July according to the Census Bureau. Don’t give economists too much credit because the advance report two weeks ago provided insight. Econoday claims the report is entirely good news. There’s really only good news in the July factory orders report where the headline, at […]
Gold: Book Profits Now
Gold has staged a fabulous rally from about $1220 to $1245. Using the December futures price chart, I’ve defined the $1300 – $1350 area as a spectacular profit booking opportunity for investors. I’m an eager gold bullion seller now, but I’m less eager to sell gold stocks or silver bullion. That’s because they have not taken out […]
Stocks Fall, VIX Spikes As DACA News Adds To List Of Worries
It’s safe to say that the market is pricing in some kind of political risk around the administration’s highly contentious decision to end DACA. This was, of course, predictable (both the rescinding of the program and the political firestorm it will invariably engender), but this looks like a bridge too far for U.S. equities that […]
Wells Fargo Sees Disney Among Winners In New Streaming World
This morning, Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker upgraded Disney (DIS) to Outperform as the company ventures into direct-to-consumer streaming. Meanwhile, the analyst also downgraded Viacom (VIAB) to Market Perform, citing lack of visibility into a turnaround. BUY DISNEY: In a research note to investors, Wells Fargo’s Ryvicker upgraded Disney to Outperform from Market Perform and […]
Why The ECB Will Keeping Buying Bonds For As Long As It Takes
BAML does not think buying bonds by the ECB will not stop anytime soon The European Central Bank holds its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday and investors are on the look out for any signal from the bank on its plans to scale back its €60 billion bonds buying stimulus program. Speculation that the […]
The Phillips Curve Is Working Just Fine, Thanks
I must say that it is discouraging how often I have to write about the Phillips Curve. The Phillips Curve is a very simple idea and a very powerful model. It simply says that when labor is in short supply, its price goes up. In other words: labor, like everything else, is traded in the […]
Stocks: Top This Week
Cycles pointing to a low near August 21 were successful. We now have cycles and Lindsay models pointing to a high this week. Middle Section forecasts point to a top this week. The high on 7/16/14 counts 575 days to the low of the basic decline on 2/11/16. 575 days later is 9/8/17. No middle […]
Balancing The Debt Ceiling Debate And North Korea Fears
(Audio length 00:14:05) As we kick off a busier time of the year for investors we again have money moving into safe havens. Chris Temple and I discuss the ongoing debt ceiling debate (see stat below regarding how silly this debate is) and the recent North Korea H bomb test. Depending on your investing strategy […]
Bitcoin’s Fall Unlikely To Last: 3 Great Choices
Digital currencies received a massive jolt on Monday when China’s authorities issued a notice declaring that initial coin offerings (ICOs) were illegal. Following this announcement, the price of bitcoin declined from $4,584 to nearly $4,350 per bitcoin. By Tuesday morning, the virtual currency was hovering just above the $4000 mark, nearly 20% lower than the […]
