Category Archive: Finance
US PCE Inflation Still Weak: Avoid TIPS ETFs
A key inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, remained unchanged year over year in July, per data released on August 31, 2017. It increased 0.1% in July on a monthly basis. Excluding food prices and fuel, core PCE measure — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — increased 1.4% in July year over […]
Capital Is Optimizing Again
In my calculations of utilization of labor and capital, there is a derivative of one equation that tells to what extent capacity and labor is being optimized. Here is the graph of current monthly data. As the lines get closer to 0%, they are more optimized. When they reach 0%, they are fully optimized. The […]
7 Of The Top 8 Firms Are In Tech
The stock market ended the month of August positive making it the 10th straight month the S&P 500 was up on a total return basis. In the past two days, it seemed like someone wanted the market to be up for the month as it rallied just enough to achieve that goal. The last North Korean […]
Van Halen, M&Ms, And The Next Market Downturn
The planet-sized egos of rock & roll performers are legendary. Few things symbolize this better than the outrageous requests they often make when on tour. These requests are referred to as “riders”, and appear in the contract a tour venue receives in advance of the artist’s arrival. These contract riders specify the physical conditions that […]
Yuan Outperforms Against Majors, Continues To Watch PBOC
Fundamental Forecast for CNH: Neutral Asian Stocks Mixed Despite Strong China Data, US Payrolls Loom Asian Stocks Mixed As Jackson Hole Disappoints, Yuan Gains The Chinese Yuan had the largest weekly gain against the U.S. Dollar since January in the offshore market. The USD/CNH dipped 6.5442, a 14-month low level (high for the Yuan), following the release of […]
Tax Reform Plan Details In Coming Weeks
A strong week helped keep the S&P 500’s monthly winning streak alive, although the red-hot NASDAQ had the first negative down month in recent memory. The devastation of Harvey and more provocations by North Korea were overlooked by investors in favor of strong GDP growth, potential tax reform, a friendly jobs report and views that […]
Cryptocrash: Bitcoin Tumbles To Pre Korea-Missile-Launch Level After Topping $5000
Shortly after topping $5,000 (according to several exchanges), Bitcoin began to tumble dramatically – now down almost $500 – erasing all the post-North-Korea missile anxiety gains. Ethereum has crashed even more. In fact, 9 of the 10 largest cryptocurrencies are all plunging this morning. While there is no specific catalyst for this drop, two events have […]
The Rally, The Risk, And Realism That Prevails
The Nasdaq hits all time highs in a ripping rally this past week, but AAPL displays heavy risk as indicated by the elevated implied volatility. You will want to watch this crucial Labor Day weekend video market update to find out the best trade opportunities for next week.
Harvey, The Debt Ceiling, Time To Fade The Pessimism
If you were following along last week, you know that more than a few commentators believe rates and the dollar have simply priced in too much pessimism around the U.S. economy and the fiscal outlook. No, the incoming data hasn’t exactly been what one might call “gangbusters” and the prospects for tax reform and fiscal […]
Next Week’s Dividend Stocks To Watch
Starting this weekend I will start giving you an overview of three or four dividend stocks worth looking at…reasons can be a recent dividend increase, a bad performance in the stock price etc. Please do not interpret that as a recommendation of buying those stocks. It should only give you a hint there are stocks […]
